HOW MIGRATION POLICIES SHAPE THE ETHNIC AND CULTURAL LANDSCAPE OF THE CONTINENT
The European Union has been a destination for migration since the Cold War. The year that can be considered a turning point, marking the beginning of mass migration to Europe, is 2015. According to Eurostat, 12 million migrants entered the EU that year. Thanks to the so-called “open boarders” policy, 23 million migrants entered the EU through illegal routes in 2015 and 2016 alone.
In January 2022, 238 million people who were not citizens of the European Union resided in the EU, representing 53% of the 447 million inhabitants of the 27-state bloc. Around 38 million residents were born outside the EU, accounting for approximately 85% of the population, of which 9.93 million are employed. However, this does not include the children of migrants, meaning that the actual number of EU residents of migrant origin is higher. During 2021, 23 million immigrants entered the EU from non-EU countries, an increase of almost 18% compared to 2020.
Illegal migration is often in the spotlight, but the fact is that these entries make up a small part of migration to the EU. Legal migration has a far greater impact on the ethnic makeup of EU countries.
In 2022, nearly 34 million first residence permits were issued in the EU, compared to 29 million in 2021, which is higher than before the COVID-19 pandemic (30 million in 2019). The number of first permits issued by Germany (+190%), Malta (+164%), and Ireland (+146%) more than doubled compared to 2021. In 2022, there was a particularly large increase in permits related to asylum (+60%), but the number of permits issued for education (+29%), family (+28%), and other reasons (+47%) also increased year-on-year. On the other hand, the number of permits issued for work reasons decreased compared to 2021 (-6%).
The highest number of first applications was submitted in 2022: in Germany (217,700), France (137,500), Spain (116,100), Austria (109,800), and Italy (77,200).
In 2022, EU countries made 632,400 first-instance asylum decisions, and 49% of these decisions were positive.
The number of illegal migrations is also increasing. In 2023, there were 281,872 irregular border crossings, an increase of 18% compared to the same period in 2022.
Looking at the period from January to August in 2023, an increase in crossings was recorded on the Central Mediterranean routes (+97%, 114,900) and the Western Mediterranean (including the Atlantic route from West Africa to the Canary Islands) (+7%, 20,200) compared to the same period in 2022. Between January and August 2023, there was a decrease in crossings on the Eastern Mediterranean route (-9%, 25,400) and the Eastern border route (-9%, 3,800) compared to the same period in 2022.
In 2022, 73,600 people were returned to their home countries.
In 2022, nearly 1,700 consulates of EU member states received 76 million short-stay visa applications from non-EU citizens, an increase from 29 million in 2021, but still 55% less than in 2019. A total of 59 million short-stay visas were issued, and 13 million were denied, resulting in a rejection rate of 179% across the EU (an increase from 134% in 2021).
Transformation of Population Structures in Europe
From all the aforementioned data, it is clear that we are witnessing increased migratory movements towards Europe, whether we are talking about legal or illegal migrations. This also leads to changes in the ethnic structure of the population.
For example, statistics show that Swedes will become a minority in their own country within the lifetime of most Swedes alive today. It is predicted that white people will become a numerical minority in the United States around 2040, and Germans will become a minority in Germany around 2065.
According to a 2021 survey, nearly forty percent of French people believe that Islam will be the largest religion in France in the future. Three-quarters of respondents fear that if this happens, the country will lose its historical identity. France has the largest Muslim community in Europe, with about 8,8% of the population being Muslim. The fertility rate of women with a migrant background is between 3.4 and 4 children, significantly higher than the native population rate of 1.4 children. Because of this, according to economist Charles Gave, French nationals will become a minority in their own country by 2060.
Although official data show that Italy’s population grew until 2015 and is projected by Eurostat to stabilize in the coming decades, the native population is declining at an alarming rate: every year by a quarter of a million, and this decline will accelerate. If Eurostat’s official forecast is correct, then according to studies, within 60 years—or even earlier considering the current pace of migration—half of Italy’s population will be of African or Asian origin. Italy’s fertility rate (among both native and naturalized citizens), i.e., the number of children per woman, is 1.34, far below the replacement level of 2.1. Roughly the same is true for the entire European continent.
White Britons, studies show, will become a minority in their own country by 2066 if immigration continues at its current rate. According to Professor David Coleman, a leading population expert, failure to address the influx of foreign workers “would change the national identity.” If the trend continues, the white British population, defined as citizens born in England, Scotland, Wales, and Ireland, would become a minority by approximately 2066.
From the above examples, it is quite clear that the migratory movements we have witnessed in recent years bring about significant demographic changes in Europe, including changes in the ethnic composition of the population. Although legal migration is often driven by economic needs and can contribute to the economy, its long-term impact on social and cultural cohesion should not be overlooked. Therefore, it is important that the European Union and its member states carefully manage both legal and illegal migration, with particular attention to protecting national identities, sovereignty, and traditional values.
The projected demographic changes in numerous European countries clearly show that uncontrolled migration, whether legal or illegal, will ultimately lead to significant changes in the structure of societies. For this reason, it is essential that migration policies are aimed at preserving social stability, with clear criteria for the integration of migrants and strengthening national security.
Member states need to approach migration management carefully. While there is a need for labor, it is important to prevent uncontrolled demographic changes that could threaten the long-term interests of the state and the people. A balanced migration policy that emphasizes the preservation of national identity and cultural heritage is key to ensuring a stable and secure future for Europe.