The Consequences of Uncontrolled Migration on the Stability and Security of States
Migration has existed for as long as humanity and has played a crucial role in shaping the world as we know it. Migration is not only a humanitarian, cultural, and economic issue but also a security issue. Countries develop migration policies—or should develop them—to protect their citizens and borders from potential threats. Migration directly affects the security of destination countries, transit countries, and global security.
Initially, migration was predominantly treated as a humanitarian issue or, in the case of economic migration, as a driver of development in Western countries. However, over the past decade, migration has been subject to increasing criticism, leading to more restrictive approaches to migration and, consequently, a rise in illegal migration, often involving smugglers and organized crime.
Mass migration in recent decades has been largely linked to the interventionist policies of Western countries in the Middle East and North Africa. The migration crisis is, therefore, a significant consequence of complex geopolitical upheavals in the MENA region (Middle East and North Africa) in the early 21st century.
According to data from about a decade ago, migrants made up around 3% of the global population (230 million people), 20% of whom were illegal migrants. During the 2015 migration crisis, 90% of migrants entered the European Union with the help of criminal organizations. Illegal migration undermines border control and, thus, the sovereignty of countries. As such, it is a significant security challenge, particularly given that the number of migrants is increasing year after year, leading to growing tensions between newcomers and the local population.
Anarchy Through Migration: Dangers Facing Europe
As early as the mid-1990s, it was predicted that mass migration, as part of increasing global instability, would cause tensions worldwide. These predictions have proven accurate, as migration flows are already a source of many social and political tensions, which could worsen in the future if effective solutions are not found.
One only needs to recall the 2015 crisis, which overnight raised questions about the effectiveness of the Schengen Agreement and the stability of the European Union. Migration has been a highly contentious issue in the EU for more than a decade, capable of winning or losing elections. European institutions often struggle with managing migration effectively, raising questions about their competence in handling this complex issue.
Migrants, by crossing physical and symbolic state borders, can pose a potential threat, as their true intentions are often unknown at first. In the long term, migration can affect the social cohesion and stability of host countries. Issues of integration, social alienation, and exclusion can have serious security consequences, including rising crime rates or threats to national security. Additionally, migration can become a political factor that could destabilize relations between the host country and the migrants’ countries of origin.
A classic example of this is seen after Israel’s attack on Gaza, where a terrorist attack on Israel originated. All European countries with larger Muslim migrant populations had to be very careful in their responses, and there were mass protests across the continent.
ISIS once threatened to send 500,000 migrants as part of its psychological war against the West to flood Europe, and Muammar Gaddafi, in his last interview in 2011, warned that the Mediterranean would become a “sea of chaos” and that Mediterranean countries would face a “tragic fate.”
Terrorism and Isolated Communities: The Dangers of No-Go Zones in Europe
Migration is also linked to the issue of terrorism. Research shows that an increasing number of terrorist attacks are carried out by individuals born and raised in Europe. Almost a fifth of British Muslims (19%) admired Osama bin Laden. At Muslim protests across Europe (e.g., after Israel’s aforementioned attack on Gaza), calls were made for the abolition of democracy and the introduction of Sharia law.
Migrants in Europe sometimes isolate themselves in communities less integrated into broader society, which can lead to the creation of so-called no-go zones, or areas with their own rules, including Sharia law. These areas pose a security challenge because they often lack proper police and security oversight, and in some cases, that oversight is almost nonexistent. This can create spaces for criminal activities and the potential planning of terrorist attacks, threatening general safety.
Migration, for example, has destroyed security in Sweden, where conflicts between migrant gangs hinder normal life. The Swedish prime minister even called on military leaders to help curb the rising number of murders attributed to migrant gangs.
In discussing the collapse of multiculturalism, we have referenced data from Germany, Norway, the UK, and the Netherlands, where there has been a significant rise in the number of rapes. European political elites, often exhibiting oikophobia (self-hatred of one’s own culture), deny these facts, while certain pseudo-sociological studies even attempt to prove that the native population is more prone to crime than the newcomers. Of course, not all migrants are criminals, but caution should be exercised with people who, from the moment of their arrival, break the laws of the country they enter.
The European Union should establish its own border police to effectively control its external borders, as Frontex has proven insufficient for this role. However, the problem is not just illegal migration. Legal migration, which increases year after year, also poses the danger of creating parallel societies, security challenges, and the gradual transformation of Europe’s identity, which demands serious consideration and long-term strategies.
More restrictive legal regulations are also necessary. The so-called Marrakesh Agreement of 2018, a key global document regulating migration, emphasizes the sovereignty of national states and is non-binding. However, the Marrakesh Declaration, for the first time, defined the right to migration as a fundamental human right and categorized various types of migrants as vulnerable groups.
Furthermore, the New European Pact on Migration offers more restrictive solutions, but even these are insufficient. Most Europeans see uncontrolled migration, and increasingly even legal migration, as an existential threat that endangers the European way of life.
As a border country of the entire Schengen Agreement, the Republic of Croatia is primarily responsible for protecting Europe’s borders. One of the main migrant routes passes through Croatia. Continuing the current policies and hesitating about deploying the military to the borders could lead to significant security problems for Croatia.