From Population Loss to the Need for the Return of Croats from the Diaspora
Modern Croatian history highlights the fact that, due to various historical circumstances, Croatians have become a nation of emigrants. During the 15th and 16th centuries, due to the Ottoman invasion of Europe, Croatia, then part of the state unions with Hungary and later the Habsburgs, became known as the “Antemurale Christianitatis.” This led to a large number of deaths and emigration. Estimates suggest that one-third of Croatia’s population left the country at that time. Combined with those killed, Croatia’s population was halved. Many regions of Croatia came under Ottoman rule, leaving only remnants of the Kingdoms of Dalmatia, Croatia, and Slavonia under the Croatian Parliament’s control.
Another significant wave of emigration, mainly for economic and political reasons, occurred at the end of the 19th century, when around half a million Croats emigrated to overseas countries. Croatian writer Antun Gustav Matoš famously wrote, “The homeland to it’s son is foreign, and for the foreigner Croatia is a homeland!” Emigration continued into the 20th century, primarily for political reasons, with economic factors joining in. A large number of people emigrated in 1945 from Yugoslavia after the establishment of a totalitarian communist regime, although the exact numbers are hard to estimate due to ongoing, under-researched communist executions.
After the borders of communist Yugoslavia were opened, a measure intended to alleviate accumulated economic problems, many Croats from both Croatia and Bosnia and Herzegovina went abroad for so-called temporary work, primarily to West Germany. In 1971, Croats made up 22.1% of Yugoslavia’s population but accounted for 39% of the 763,000 migrants. Many “Gastarbeiters” turned their temporary stays into permanent ones, though they maintained ties with their homeland and sent substantial sums of money back to Croatia, as new favorable Yugoslav regulations allowed them to legally remit foreign earnings into domestic banks.
The aggression against the Republic of Croatia and Bosnia and Herzegovina in the early 1990s led to another wave of emigration, primarily to Germany and other European countries.
The Wave of Emigration After Joining the EU: How to Stop It?
However, nothing compares to the massive wave of emigration that began in 2013, when Croatia joined the European Union. From 2011 to 2021, the population decreased by 396,360 people, or 9.25%. The greatest population decline occurred in Vukovar-Srijem County, where the population fell by 19.54%, or 35,083 people. In just ten years, Croatia lost ten percent of its population.
Data from the Croatian Bureau of Statistics (DZS) shows that in the last 30 years, Croatia has lost 895,736 people, or about 19% of its population. Demographers like Professor Dr. Tado Jurić warn that the actual population decline between 2011 and 2021 is even greater than official numbers suggest. “The census once again presents a false demographic picture. Fictional residents have been counted, along with workers who immigrated to Croatia under previous foreign employment quotas. At least 200,000 people are shown more than the actual number,” Jurić said in an interview.
He further elaborated: “In 2011, there were 3,874,000 Croats living in Croatia, and in 2021, without the fictional residents, about 3,400,000 live there. The number of Croats has fallen by 9%, while the number of foreign nationals has increased by 5%. In just the last ten years, there are 470,000 fewer Croats and 200,000 more foreigners. But why are the numbers presented this way? Because Croatia receives EU funds per capita, and there’s no real interest in showing the true picture. Moreover, such depopulation—a loss of over 10% of the population in less than eight years in peacetime—has never happened anywhere in the world except Bosnia and Herzegovina, so it doesn’t benefit political elites to highlight it.”
A Generation on the Move: Half of Young Croatians Plan to Emigrate
Research by the World Youth Alliance shows that almost half of young people—about 49%—are considering leaving Croatia, and many of them do emigrate to Western Europe. Those employed in the private sector are more likely to consider leaving, as the public sector offers greater job security. Those who don’t want to leave Croatia associate the country with the words “homeland” and “beauty,” while those who want to leave associate it with “corruption” and “tourism.” The research highlights that young people considering emigration see corruption as a major issue.
The clientelist and corrupt model prevalent in the economy, society, and politics creates an atmosphere of injustice, apathy, and a lack of faith in positive changes in Croatia. This is exacerbated by the corruption of the Croatian judiciary, which tolerates such practices.
Emigration continues even after the census. From 2021 to February 2023, Croatia lost at least another 17,000 people, according to estimates from the Croatian Bureau of Statistics. Unfortunately, more waves of emigration can be expected.
According to new EU regulations, there will no longer be traditional population censuses every ten years; instead, administrative registers will annually collect and update population data daily. This will undoubtedly suit Croatian political structures, as half a million people who “voted with their feet” speak volumes about the results of their policies. Similarly, this will help other ruling circles across Europe hide the fact that significant demographic and cultural changes are occurring in the EU.
However, the situation is not the same in all countries. For instance, Germany treats Croatia and other Central and Eastern European countries as labor colonies. Thus, populous EU states and those with only a few million inhabitants are not in the same position.
In conclusion, the demographic challenges Croatia faces, with the constant loss of population through emigration and the arrival of foreign labor, require urgent strategic thinking and action. It is necessary to develop long-term policies that will encourage the return of emigrants, strengthen the economy, and provide young people with prospects within Croatia’s borders. Only through responsible management of demographic issues, preserving national identity, and investing in future generations can Croatia secure a stable and prosperous future as a country for its citizens.